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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the greatest surprise.

But the current race is distinctly different. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions fading and longtime underperformers ascending together. During an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still